Bitcoin Price Analysis Reveals a Textbook Breakdown With Bears Back in Control
Bitcoin price analysis brings both warning signs and opportunities. Bitcoin’s structure, which has been forming a textbook rising wedge for weeks, has finally given way — breaking below support, backtesting the underside, and now eyeing the all-important $100,000 level. The move has captured the attention of traders across all timeframes, as the broader structure continues to unfold with precision and near-perfect technical alignment.
This Bitcoin price analysis highlights the potential for a large-scale move that could redefine the short-term trend. While bulls might want to look away, bears are watching closely. The breach of the wedge’s undercarriage signals potential downside pressure, especially if Bitcoin fails to reclaim its broken support zone.
Rising Wedge Breakdown: Textbook Technical Action
Every so often, price action aligns so perfectly with textbook technical theory that even veteran traders take notice. That’s exactly what’s happening now. In this Bitcoin price analysis, the rising wedge has acted exactly as expected — narrowing volatility, compressing momentum, and finally giving way to a downward break.
After breaching the lower trendline, Bitcoin retraced upward to retest the underside of the wedge — a move often referred to as a “kiss of death” in technical analysis. This confirms that what was once support has now flipped into resistance. As of now, Bitcoin remains below that retest zone, suggesting that the bearish pattern has validity and follow-through potential.
Backtesting the Wedge: Why It Matters
The backtest phase is crucial in any Bitcoin price analysis involving a pattern break. It distinguishes fakeouts from genuine reversals. In this case, Bitcoin’s backtest was precise and rejection was swift, reinforcing the legitimacy of the breakdown.
Traders now shift focus to key psychological andپ. The $100,000 level, while still above the current price, represents a long-term support threshold within a broader megaphone or “broadening formation” that has developed over months. The market’s behavior around this level will likely determine whether this is just a corrective pullback — or the start of a larger downtrend.
Broadening Pattern: The Bigger Picture
Adding complexity to the current Bitcoin price analysis, a broadening pattern (also called a megaphone pattern) has formed on the higher timeframe charts. The pattern, circled on several professional charts, shows expanding volatility — a sign that traders are becoming increasingly reactive rather than predictive.
This formation aligns with the 100K level acting as major structural support. However, the measurement rule of this pattern points toward a potential move down to $70,000 if that 100K level is breached and held for several daily closes. That’s the line in the sand. Hold above, and Bitcoin can recover into consolidation; lose it, and things could accelerate to the downside very quickly.
The Bearish Scenario: What Happens Below 100K
This Bitcoin price analysis wouldn’t be complete without exploring the bearish side. If Bitcoin falls below the 100K support and stays there for more than 48 hours, the measurement rule projects a swift drop toward $70K. Historically, such breaches have led to cascading liquidations and high volatility events as leveraged traders get squeezed out of the market.
That said, this wouldn’t necessarily spell the end of the macro bull market. Instead, it could represent a deeper correction within a larger cycle. A fall to $70K could flush excess leverage, shake out weak hands, and set the stage for a stronger foundation ahead of the next halving-driven rally.
The Bullish Case: Hope Above Support
On the bullish side, some analysts argue that this entire Bitcoin price analysis setup could represent a final shakeout before continuation. If Bitcoin manages to hold above 100K or quickly reclaim it after a brief dip, it could trap late short-sellers and fuel a strong rebound back toward 110K or even 120K.
The structure of the market still supports long-term bullish trends, with fundamentals like institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and corporate accumulation remaining intact. So while the current wedge breakdown looks concerning, it might also be part of a broader bullish consolidation phase.
Market Psychology: Bulls vs Bears
In this Bitcoin price analysis, psychology plays as big a role as technicals. Bullish traders often underestimate how quickly market sentiment can shift after a wedge breakdown. Meanwhile, bears tend to grow overconfident, shorting too aggressively at support zones. The key is to remain objective and disciplined.
Bulls are hoping that the 100K zone becomes the next “buy-the-dip” level, while bears see it as the gateway to 70K. Whichever group prevails will set the tone for the next leg of Bitcoin’s journey — and likely for the broader crypto market as well.
Indicators Confirm the Tension
Looking deeper into this Bitcoin price analysis, indicators like RSI, MACD, and volume are flashing mixed signals. RSI has broken below its trendline but remains near the neutral 50 mark, indicating room for both upside and downside volatility. MACD has just turned bearish, with momentum shifting downward, confirming the wedge’s breakdown.
Volume also tells a revealing story — a clear spike during the initial breakdown, followed by declining activity during the backtest. That’s a classic signature of distribution — large players exiting positions while retail traders hesitate.
The Probable Path Forward
The most probable scenario, based on this Bitcoin price analysis, is a controlled decline toward the 100K zone, potentially followed by a brief bounce. If the bounce fails to reclaim the wedge structure, the next leg lower could target 85K and then 70K.
However, traders should remain flexible. Bitcoin has a long history of fakeouts — invalidating patterns just as they gain public attention. A sudden reclaim above 105K could flip the narrative instantly, catching short-sellers off guard.
Why 100K Is So Important
In this Bitcoin price analysis, the 100K level isn’t just a round number — it’s a psychological fortress. It represents a key retracement point on multiple timeframes and has acted as both resistance and support in the past. Losing it could spark panic, but defending it could reassert bullish dominance.
That’s why both bulls and bears are laser-focused on how price behaves here. The next few daily closes will be critical in determining whether the market is headed for recovery or deeper correction.
Long-Term Outlook: The Bigger Bitcoin Cycle
Despite the short-term bearish pressure, the long-term Bitcoin price analysis remains optimistic. Each major cycle has seen similar wedge breakdowns that led to deep but temporary corrections before resuming the primary trend. Long-term investors view these moments as opportunities, not threats.
Fundamentally, nothing has changed. Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, institutional demand, and global adoption curve remain strong. Whether price dips to 70K or rebounds from 100K, the macro uptrend remains valid as long as Bitcoin holds above the 200-week moving average.
Final Thoughts: A Chart Worth Watching
This Bitcoin price analysis paints a picture of tension, precision, and potential. The rising wedge breakdown has given bears temporary control, but the battle for 100K will decide who wins the next round. The 70K target looms below, but so does opportunity — for those patient enough to wait for confirmation.
Bitcoin has always thrived on volatility and uncertainty. The current setup is no different. Whether you’re a bull preparing for a rebound or a bear waiting for continuation, this is a chart worth watching closely. The next breakout — up or down — could be one of the most decisive moves of the year.
So as this Bitcoin price analysis concludes, one message remains clear: keep your eyes on 100K. Above it lies redemption; below it lies chaos. Either way, Bitcoin is about to remind everyone why it’s the most exciting asset on Earth.